Katrina population may help Texas gain 4th U.S. House seat

As cities and states scramble to ensure the highest count possible in April’s census, Texas’ future clout could be swayed by those who fled Hurricane Katrina four years ago and settled in the state.

Data from the census is used to dole out congressional districts every 10 years and to divide more than $300 billion in federal funds disbursed each year. Demographers predict Texas will add at least three new districts, and the evacuees who stayed after the 2005 storm – experts estimate between 50,000 and 100,000 did so – could provide the margin for a fourth seat.

Homing instinct

Local census committees in Dallas and elsewhere are pushing for an accurate count of those displaced, even as New Orleans-area leaders are imploring former residents to return for the census count. Some evacuees retain a strong desire to go back.

“If I had the opportunity to move back home, I would do it,” said Erana Mayes, a 44-year-old who moved to Duncanville with her teenage daughter after Katrina.

The Katrina population accounts for only a fraction of the nearly 4 million residents Texas added in the decade, an increase credited to the state’s relatively strong economy. As the housing market collapsed and unemployment spiked in states such as Florida, California and Arizona, Texas and its 24.8 million residents emerged better off than most.

William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, used growth rates from the first half of the decade to see what congressional apportionment might look like. Had those trends continued, Texas would have picked up just three congressional districts because of growth in Florida and California.

But now Frey predicts Texas will gain four U.S. House seats, in part because of Katrina. Many of those displaced by the storm remain unsettled, and slight population shifts can dramatically affect how congressional districts are distributed. Seats in Congress translate to added political power, through extra possible slots on key committees that write major legislation and divide up federal funds.

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